Descartes Datamyne™ trade data reveals a pattern of spikes in U.S. import volumes as trading partners anticipated reciprocal duties that took effect in August. Case in point: India.
The Trump administration’s Liberation Day tariff increases, a series of rate hikes aimed at reciprocating to varying degrees the tariffs imposed on U.S. exports by its trading partners, are intended to rebalance trade. Their initial result seems to have been to drive up U.S. imports before the higher customs duties kicked in August 7 (after three postponements – see the timeline at the end).
Key Takeaways
- U.S. imports from India climbed sharply in the months leading up to newly implemented tariffs in August 2025, as businesses moved quickly to ship goods before higher duties took effect.
- A 50% total tariff rate, combining reciprocal trade penalties and sanctions related to Russian oil, significantly influenced import timing and volume.
- Smartphones became India’s top export to the U.S. by value, driven by Apple’s decision to manufacture the entire iPhone17 lineup in India, marking a major shift in global tech production.
- Air shipments played a major role, accounting for nearly half of Indian exports to the U.S. in 2025, with consumer electronics leading the surge.
- Solar panels, medications, and seafood (especially shrimp) were key contributors to the spike in ocean freight, with many shipments strategically timed to avoid the new duties.
- Trade data from Descartes Datamyne highlights a mismatch between high shipment volumes and more modest increases in overall value, suggesting a rise in lower-cost goods.
- A university-led analysis confirmed that multiple countries, including India, saw spikes in U.S. market share ahead of tariff enforcement, pointing to strategic pre-tariff export behavior.
- Longer-term trade shifts, including reduced reliance on Chinese suppliers, are boosting India’s role in U.S. supply chains across electronics, pharmaceuticals, and energy components.
Early data suggests that after the surge comes a drop-off. A case in point is U.S. imports from India.
Effective in August, Indian imports became subject to a 25% reciprocal tariff rate plus a 25% penalty for purchasing oil from Russia, for a combined rate of 50%. Figure 1 illustrates the rise and fall of inbound import volumes from India using U.S. import bill-of-lading (BOL) data from Descartes Datamyne.
Figure 1 Comparison of Monthly U.S. Import in Twenty-equivalent-units (TEU) from India January through September 2024 vs 2025
Source: Descartes Datamyne import data.
Descartes Datamyne import data tracks the monthly value of imports from India across all transport modes, overland, rail, and air as well oceangoing. While the value of this year’s imports has been running well above 2024 levels, the peak came in March (see Figure 2)
Figure 2 Comparison of Monthly FOB US$ Value of U.S. Imports from India January through July 2024 vs 2025
Source: Descartes Datamyne U.S. Census import data.
Monthly trade data from Descartes Datamyne on the calculated value of waterborne cargo indicates an April 2025 peak in value – well below the first of 2024’s twin peaks (see Figure 3).
Figure 3 Comparison of Monthly Calculated Value of U.S. Waterborne Imports from India January through September 2024 vs 2025
Source: Descartes Datamyne U.S. Census import data.
The surge in waterborne import volume accompanied by flat growth in calculated value is an indication that lower-value goods drove this summer’s peak in U.S. imports from India.
A closer look at the trade data reveals that the waterborne value peak was lifted by human or animal substances prepared for therapeutic or prophylactic uses [Harmonized Schedule (HS)3001, accounting for 14% of that month’s total value]. In contrast, the value peak captured by the Census is the result of a surge in telephone sets [HS8517, 22%], with an added boost from medicaments [HS3004, 19%].
Tariffs Drive Gains (and Losses) in U.S. Market Share
Taking a different tack on gauging the impact of the current tariff regime, a study from the University of Pennsylvania Penn-Wharton school measured the change in originating countries’ share of U.S. imports. The study, covering the period from October 2024 through May 2025, found a pattern of import surges ahead of pending tariff increases – with India among the key datapoints (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 Measuring Surges in Exporting Countries’ Shares of U.S. Imports October 2024 through May 2025
Source: University of Pennsylvania | Penn-Wharton “Import Surges and Tariff Avoidance: The Short-term Impact of the Trump Administration’s Trade Policies”.
According to Penn-Wharton, outlier Switzerland (the dot at the top of the chart) saw demand surge for gold bullion, which traders started importing in December as a precaution against potential tariffs on gold. Ireland also saw an anticipatory spike in pharmaceutical shipments, but consumer demand for weight-loss drugs was also a factor.
The Penn-Wharton study ends with May’s data, the month after reciprocal tariffs were announced. At that point, the U.S. had implemented tariffs on imports from China, Canada and Mexico under the authority of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. (The reciprocal tariffs also invoke IEEPA authority.) In addition, new duties under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act were levied on steel, aluminum, and derivative products in March; automobiles in April; and auto parts in May. So, the shift in trade shares through May is not purely anticipatory. Table 1 shows the shifts in market share of the countries spotlighted by Penn-Wharton January through July of this year.
Table 1 Changes in Exporting Countries’ Shares of U.S. Imports January through July 2024 vs 2025
Source: Descartes Datamyne U.S. Census import data.
Just as the surge in U.S. imports from Ireland got a boost from market demand for weight-loss drugs, the spikes in Indian imports are not the result of impending tariffs alone – as the export data demonstrates.
Our India Data Reveals Market Trends
India export data from Descartes Datamyne is sourced from India’s customs declarations. This database covers the value of trade in Indian Rupee (INR) and U.S. dollar (US$) across all transport modes, goods in trade denoted by 2-, 4-, 6-digit tariff codes, place of arrival and departure, and exporters and foreign buyers.
Figure 5 illustrates the monthly rise and fall in the declared value of India’s exports to the U.S. through July of this year compared with the same period in 2024.
Figure 5 Comparison of Monthly FOB US$ Value of India’s Exports to the U.S. January through July 2024 vs 2025
Source: Descartes Datamyne India export data.
The Indian export data trendline – with twin peaks in March and May and an upturn in July – echoes the trendline traced by trade data from Descartes Datamyne. But unlike the U.S. maritime volumes, which surged in July-August, the value of India’s exports peaked in March.
A dive into U.S. trade data shows that India’s export surge has less to do with tariff avoidance (which did lift the flow of pharmaceuticals, diamonds, and jewelry) and much more to do with a major shift in the global production of smartphones.
The Indian export declarations distinguish between transport modes: airborne, waterborne, and ICD, or Inland Container Depot (most ICD cargos, but not all, reach the U.S. market via oceangoing ships) (see Figure 6). A significant share of Indian exports to the U.S. arrives by air, 44% so far this year.
Figure 6 Comparison of Transport Modes’ Shares of India’s Exports to the U.S. January through July 2024 vs 2025
Source: Descartes Datamyne India export data.
Comparing the year-over-year India trade data for India’s airborne exports, it’s clear that air cargos set the trendline for India’s exports to its top customer in 2025 (see Figure 7).
Figure 7 Comparison of Monthly FOB US$ Value of India’s Airborne Exports to the U.S. January through July 2024 vs 2025
Source: Descartes Datamyne India export data.
A further drill-down to product data reveals that smartphones [HS851713] drove the big trade spikes (see Figure 8 and 9).
Figure 8 Monthly Value of India’s Airborne Top 3 Exports to the U.S. 2024 through July
Source: Descartes Datamyne India export data.
Figure 9 Monthly Value of India’s Airborne Top 3 Exports to the U.S. 2025 through July
Source: Descartes Datamyne India export data.
U.S. Census data charts the spectacular rise of made-in-India smartphones shipped to the U.S., from zero in 2021 to top ranking, accounting for 20% of the value of U.S. imports from India (see Figure 10).
Figure 10 Five-Year Trend in 2025’s Top 5 U.S. Imports from India by Value
Source: Descartes Datamyne U.S. Census import data.
This ascendancy of India as a smartphone production hub is, of course, an outcome of U.S. tariff policies ratcheting up the duties on made-in-China products over several years. This year is a milestone in the shift in smartphone production. As Bloomberg reports, Apple is manufacturing its entire new iPhone17 product series in India. The tech company is also investing in U.S. manufacturing capacity, according to Bloomberg. When the U.S. unveiled its reciprocal tariffs in April, smartphones were among the products explicitly exempted. But that may change. For now, makers and buyers of smartphones lead India’s export trade (see Table 2).
Table 2 Top Exporters and Buyers of India’s Airborne Exports to the U.S. 2025 through July
Source: Descartes Datamyne India export data.
Solar Fuels India’s Waterborne Trade Surge
India export data indicates a surge in cargo value as well as volume in July (see Figure 11).
Figure 11 Comparison of Monthly FOB US$ Value of India’s Waterborne Exports to the U.S. January through July 2024 vs 2025
Source: Descartes Datamyne India export data.
A drill-down to product data reveals that shrimps and prawns [HS030617], a mainstay of Indian exports to the U.S., hit peak value in May (compared with July in 2024), and bested the performance of medicaments [HS300490] February through July (see Figure 12).
Figure 12 Monthly Value of India’s Waterborne Top 3 Exports to the U.S. 2024 through July
Source: Descartes Datamyne India export data.
Solar panels [HS854143] are among the top three waterborne exports (see Figure 13). As reported in Reuters, India has been expanding its solar production capacity, taking advantage of discounted photovoltaic cells (PVC) from China, and has reached a the point that oversupply is now a concern. The pending 50% tariff on India’s solar panels provided an incentive to ship as much product as possible ahead of the August effective date. (In July, the U.S. initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Indian solar imports, which could result in added duties.) U.S. import data clearly shows the leading role solar panels played in this summer’s surge in TEUs from India (see Figure 13).
Figure 13 Monthly Value of India’s Waterborne Top 3 Exports to the U.S. 2025 through July
Source: Descartes Datamyne India export data.
As the trade data demonstrates, the initial impact of the U.S. reciprocal tariff regime has been a surge in U.S. imports. Other global market trends have helped drive up imports of selected trade goods, but mitigating the costs of pending tariffs has been a central goal of trading strategies this past summer, as the data shows (see Figure 14 and 15). More market shifts can be expected now that the tariffs have entered into force.
Figure 14 Monthly Value of Top 5 U.S. Waterborne imports from India 2024 through August
Source: Descartes Datamyne U.S. import data.
Figure 15 Monthly Value of Top 5 U.S. Waterborne imports from India 2025 through August
Source: Descartes Datamyne U.S. import data.
The Timeline of U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs
The U.S. reciprocal tariff policy fluctuating rates, exemptions, and postponements from April through September (see Table 3).
Table 3 Timeline of U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Act (IEEPA) through September 2025
Source: Descartes Systems Group.
Note: The timeline covers the reciprocal tariffs announced April 2, under the authority of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The Trump administration has also imposed new 10% tariffs on Chinese imports effective February 4 and again on March 4, as well as product-specific tariffs covering steel and aluminum, automobiles and auto parts, and copper, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
How Descartes Can Help
As shifting tariff policies reshape global trade, Descartes Datamyne provides the timely, detailed global trade data needed to navigate these changes with confidence. The recent surge in U.S. imports from India ahead of new tariffs highlights how businesses are adapting sourcing and logistics strategies in real time, trends made visible through Descartes Datamyne’s import and export intelligence.
By offering access to both U.S. bill-of-lading data and India’s export declarations, Descartes delivers a comprehensive view of trade flows across transport modes and product categories. This insight helps companies anticipate disruptions, spot emerging trade lanes, and evaluate the real impact of tariffs on sourcing and market share.
Whether monitoring shifts in smartphone and solar panel imports or analyzing broader market reactions, Descartes Datamyne equips decision-makers with the data needed to respond strategically to a fast-changing trade environment.
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